The main reason for the downward revision in the crop forecast is the current dryness in the northern half of the EU. Crop expectations have been lowered significantly for Sweden, Denmark, and the Baltics. Production has also been revised down for Germany and Spain, where current rains came too late for wheat and barley. Wheat production (excluding durum) is expected at 142.4 mln t, down from 144.5 mln t in the last forecast and from 142.5 mln t in 2022. The EU-27+UK 2023 barley production is forecast at 56.6 mln t, down from the previous forecast of 59.6 mln t and from the 59.3 mln t in 2022. The corn crop is now seen at 61.3 mln t. The previous forecast was at 62.3 mln t and last year’s crop at just 52.5 mln t. Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, and Italy are forecast to see much bigger crops after the 2022 crop had been affected by severe drought and heat. The French corn crop, however, is not expected to recover to a substantial extent because plantings are down due to high input costs. More extensive crops, such as sunseeds, are seen to substitute a part of the corn area.
The EU-27+UK rapeseed crop is forecast at 21.0 mln t compared to 21.1 mln t in the previous forecast and 21.0 mln t in 2022. Plantings are up slightly year on year, while yields are expected to drop slightly from last year’s good level. If the current dryness in the northern half of the EU will continue into July a further cut in the production forecast seems very likely.
