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| 21 feb 2020 |
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Coceral crop forcast jan. 2020
In its first forecast for the 2020 crop, Coceral sees the EU total grain crop at 302.7 mln t. This is down from the 2019 level of 308.9 mln t.
Wheat production (excluding durum) is seen at 137.9 mln t, down from last year’s 145.7 mln t. The expected decrease is mainly due to a significant acreage reduction in France, Germany, Denmark and particularly the UK due to abundant rains during the planting season last fall. France, Denmark, and the UK are also forecast to see lower yields than last year.
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The EU’s 2020 barley production is forecast at 60.8 mln t, down from 62.2 mln t last year. This is mainly due to an expected return in winter barley yields from last year’s exceptionally good levels in France and the UK to average levels, which cannot be completely offset by higher spring barley areas and yields.
The EU’s 2020 corn crop is expected to reach 65.0 mln t and thus more than last year’s 61.0 mln t. The corn acreage is seen benefiting from the wet planting campaign for winter grains. It is therefore seen at 9.0 mln ha versus 8.5 mln ha in 2019. The most notable year-on-year increases in production are expected for France, Germany and Poland.
The 2020 rapeseed production forecast for the EU stands at 17.1 mln t which only marginally higher than last year’s disappointing level of 16.7 mln t. France and Romania are expected to see a further decrease in acreage, whereas Germany should see a slight recovery from the very low level in 2019. EU-wide yields are seen only slightly better than last year, with improvements expected for Germany, France, and Romania, but lower levels for the UK and Denmark.
Please note that the methodology used to complete the COCERAL crop forecast remains the same as usual, the only change in this year’s forecast is related to the UK crop data. As you will see attached, our COCERAL Crop estimates are presented in two versions, ‘EU-27’ and the ‘EU-27 plus UK’.
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