Coceral Crop Forecast on Cereals and Oilseeds – June 2018
In its second forecast for the 2018 crop, Coceral revised down its EU total grain crop forecast from the previous figure of 302.5 mln t to 299.1 mln t. This would be almost exactly as much as last year’s crop when farmers harvested 299.2 mln t of grains. The wheat crop was revised down from 140.5 mln t to 138.8 mln t, which would also be lower than the 141.6 mln t reached in 2017. Reductions have been made for Germany, Scandinavia, all Baltic countries as well as Romania due to the ongoing dryness. Crops in France and Spain, in turn, have been revised up.
The EU’s barley production forecast was slightly revised up from 60.3 to 60.8 mln t, with a higher crop now seen for France and most notably Spain more than offsetting expected losses in the dry aformentioned areas. The 2017 crop stood at 58.1 mln t.
Although still early in the season, the EU’s corn crop projection was revised down from 61.7 mln t to 60.3 mln t due to a bad start in several countries and a downwide revision in the Romanian area. In 2017, production was at 59.9 mln t.
The rapeseed production forecast for the EU was revised down significantly from 22.0 mln t to just 21.1 mln t (last year: 22.0 mln t.
Weather over the coming months, however, will be crucial for crop development and final yields and deviations from the aforementioned forecasts are not unlikely therefore.