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 05 oct 2017 13:58 

Short-term outlook for EU agricultural markets in 2017 and 2018

EU cereal production in 2017/2018 is expected to slightly recover from the low 2016/2017 season. However, it remains below average. Quality is very uneven. World and EU prices are not expected to rise in a context of ample global supplies. Oilseed production is expected to reach a high level mainly due to increasing yields.

Report (392.1 Kb)

Increased global sugar production in 2017/2018 will put additional pressure on already low world prices. With the end of sugar quotas, EU prices will become more exposed to world price volatility.

High olive oil prices due to the drop in production in the EU and globally in 2016/2017 led to a significant drop in consumption in the main EU-producing countries.
Market conditions in the dairy sector have been unprecedented with a record gap between very high butter prices and skimmed milk powder prices at intervention level. High demand for cheese, butter, cream and powders is supporting milk prices, and thanks to good forage, milk collection is expected to increase from last year.

High beef exports are helping to balance the increase in supply driven mainly by the dairy herd reduction. The growing production of pigmeat combined with falling exports could lead to lower prices. Poultry production and trade are expected to improve in the second half of 2017 after disruptions from bird flu. Sheepmeat exports on the rise.

Note: This report has been drawn up for the EU-28 under constant policy assumptions, with the Russian import ban assumed to be in place until the end of 2018.

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