Most of this area can be planted with spring crops if moisture is available but the yields are much lower. Analysts are also saying that on reduced acres the government is forecasting higher yields which they think is 'overly optimistic'. Already there is speculation that before the current market year is over wheat will be over $400 a ton in Russia. This will pull in wheat from Kazhakstan and other neighbors.
Wheat is the most global of all grain commodities though it is my observation the location of surpluses is more important than the overall amount grown in a year. If China has a big crop then it adds to its inventory, which is huge, that is unlikely to ever be exported to a deficit country in significant amounts. Same w/ India though they have finally reached saturation for storage and are in fact exporting some. If several traditional wheat exporting countries have poor wheat crops the restraints on trade can be significant.
The question is, what will be the ramifications if both the Black Sea region and the Plains have poor wheat crops? First, having low stocks in Russia at the end of the current marketing year would mean they would likely rebuild buffer stocks in addition to normal usage, reducing further than normal the amount of 'free stocks' for export next year. The US is fortunate to always have 'free stocks' domestically but the amount available for export could be limited more than usual and there could be demand increase if there is another small crop around the Black Sea.
The threat to US production is real but moderate in the larger picture of global trade (unless you happen to be an affected farmer). The Black Sea region has proved that it can only be an intermittant supplier. The years of bumper crops are followed by years of limited production. This isn't going to change much in the future - in fact, some prognosticators have suggested global waming might increase the liklihood of more severe dry spells in the interior.
