Weatherman has no monsoon clue (Indian Meteorological Department )

This is the current prognosis of the official weatherman, although kharif sowing will probably be delayed by a fortnight thanks to a heat-wave in June that has interrupted the normal progress of the monsoon.

The National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting has forecast that a fortnight-long heatwave in June, the key sowing month for the kharif crop, spells a weak monsoon phase. Based on that, the Centre has asked farmers to be ready for late sowing.

But according to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), the let up in monsoon activity after a normal progression upto June 5-6 is �not unusual� or �abnormal,� notwithstanding the �large gap� of rainless days. Referring to other years when a similar heat wave epochs interrupted the progress of the great Indian summer monsoon but did not thwart good overall monsoons, IMD officials said: �No monsoon activity is expected this week although there are some signals next week.

But the weak monsoon phase isn�t a big problem for agriculture since it is way too early to project the rest of the monsoon period and construe a negative impact on agriculture on the basis of this. There have been other years when, despite heat wave epochs, the overall performance of the monsoons was normal.�

The key point to be focused on, according to the IMD, is that the monsoons arrived much earlier this year than in other years. Apprehensions have been triggered off on the possible impact on the sowing season in June for the kharif crop following prediction of a heat wave by the NCMRWF and directions to farmers to defer sowing.

However, IMD officials � who held a review meeting here on Tuesday on the issue � conclude that it is �way too early� even to talk of contingency plans for agricultural sowing in the crucial farm month of June. �Not only is the overall rainfall in June much lower than in the July-August period, but the variability is also much higher. In that sense, the rainfall in June is far less reliable than in other months.

The NCMRWF directions are just proof that information on the possible status of the monsoons is easily accessible for the farmer so that he can be on the alert.�

What this means for the capital market investor, really, is that while the highs and plunges on the summer monsoon graph may not be as fluctuating as with the stock market, of late, it may not be smooth sailing either.

That the monsoons will arrive is a foregone conclusion. But whether their distribution will be homogenous spatially and temporally is still something the Rain Gods hold in their hands. At least at this juncture.