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| 02 may 2016 |
13:20 |
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Five-year global supply and demand projections of grains
These projections are intended to present a possible baseline scenario for the next five-year period to 2020/21, under certain assumptions, as outlined in the overview. The starting point is heavy global supplies and weak export prices following three successive well-above average harvests. Possibly more so than usual, planting and husbandry decisions will be influenced by relative production costs and prospective profits. After the strong advances of recent years, growth in world total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production is expected to be more modest. Given a continued rise in consumption, grains stocks are projected to retreat, but remain comfortable.
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Global rice output is seen increasing to successive highs on gains in Asia’s leading producers, although average annual growth is expected to be slower than in recent years owing to limited potential for expanded plantings. A continued contraction of rice stocks is anticipated, with the stocks-to-use ratio dropping to just 16% by 2020/21, a fall of three percentage points on 2015/16. Oilseeds production is expected to increase as key growers boost plantings in response to rising consumption and trade. After the recent heavy accumulation, world oilseeds stocks are seen contracting by around one-fifth, as a modest rise for rapeseed/canola is outweighed by a fall for soyabeans.
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