It's raining cash for bookies

Though the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has already predicted a just-below-normal monsoon this year, bookies have raised the chances of an above-average rainfall based on last year’s experience.

For the entire season, the bets start from 65 paise per rupee for 1,500 mm (60 inches) of rain and go up to Rs 6.60 per rupee if the season receives 2,000 mm (80 inches) of rain.If your bet is on at least 60 inches of rainfall in Mumbai, and if this matches reality, then you gain 65 paise per rupee. Similarly, for 65 inches, you gain Rs 1.35.

Consequently, cash registers are ringing aloud, with a big chunk of the bets going awry. Normally, Mumbai receives 80 inches of rain. But last year, in July alone — which included the notorious 26/7 — the city received 37 inches of rain. That has put monsoon betting in an even more frenzied mode, driving the total amount to about Rs 3,500 crore.

Bookies involved in the “trade” said that big bets have now started flowing in. A Mumbai-based bookie said: “Though some bookies are still operating from metros like Delhi, Kolkata and Mumbai, most have shifted their operations to Jaipur, Kolkata, Bhopal and Indore.” Apart from big-city suburbs, a number of small towns such as Guwahati have emerged as major centres of the betting racket, he added.

Some cities in neighbouring countries also act as centres from where betting is co-ordinated.

How are bets being placed this year? Most bets are on total rainfall during the monsoon period, that is, from June to September. Since rainfall is recorded in millimetres, bets are being registered in terms of millimetres this year.

Earlier, bets were placed in terms of inches of rainfall. You need to book according to your expectation for total rainfall. If the actual rainfall falls below your expectation, then you lose and the bookies gain.

For the entire season, the bets start from 65 paise per rupee for 1,500 mm (60 inches) of rain and go up to Rs 6.60 per rupee if the season receives 2,000 mm (80 inches) of rain.

“Normally, the bets take place on a normal rainfall of 72-78 inches. However, last year the monsoon was beyond our expectation,” another city-based bookie said.

If your bet is on at least 60 inches of rainfall in Mumbai, and if this matches reality, then you gain 65 paise per rupee. Similarly, for 65 inches, you gain Rs 1.35. The maximum you can gain is Rs 6.60 per rupee if the season clocks 80 inches of rain. For a person with some knowledge of meteorology, rates are attractive. Mumbai averages 80 inches a monsoon. Bets are also taking place for rainfall in each month of the season. For June, bets start from 32 paise for 300 mm of rain to Rs 8 for 700 mm of rain while for July, they start from 28 paise for 400 mm rain.

“Latecomers may have to pay a price, as bookies may revise the rates, depending on how the monsoon unfolds. Met office data is used to credit or debit your balance,” a veteran bookie added. A few years ago, bookies made a heavy profit. While most bets were for at least 80 inches of rainfall in Mumbai, a final count by the Met office revealed it had fallen short by a few decimals. As a result bookies had a lot to celebrate.